Emerging agricultural expansion in northern regions: Insights from land-use research

Climate change and socio-economic dynamics are driving rapid agricultural expansion in boreal Arctic regions, referred to as northern frontiers, this has large potential environmental human implications. Conceptualizing frontiers resource building on lessons from the tropics could help guide research governance of these emerging landscapes. Boreal regions—the circumpolar vegetation belt high latitudes covered with forests, other wooded land, wetlands consisting cold-adapted species—cover around 21.51 Mkm2 Earth’s surface.1King M. Altdorff D. Li P. Galagedara L. Holden J. Unc A. Northward shift climate zone under 21st-century global change.Sci. Rep. 2018; 8: 7904Crossref PubMed Scopus (79) Google Scholar,2Unc Abakumov E. Adl S. Baldursson Bechtold Cattani D.J. Firbank L.G. Grand Guðjónsdóttir et al.Expansion Agriculture Northern Cold-Climate Regions: A Cross-Sectoral Perspective Opportunities Challenges.Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 2021; 5: 236Crossref (12) Scholar Together regions—here defined treeless tundra regions north regions—they constitute largest forest biome planet hold vast amounts carbon stocks both soils, including permafrost. As such, vital for regulation. They also very rich biodiversity, countries together home ?200 million people whose livelihoods depend natural environments.2Unc Due dynamics, new opportunities across landscape and, a lesser extent, Arctic. The region is experiencing intensification, largely driven by governments’ willingness seize offered warming conditions.3Altdorff Borchard N. Young E.H. Sorvali Quideau requires an integrated approach policy.Agron. Dev. 41: 23Crossref (9) These “northern, climate-driven frontiers”1King offer development, food production, local self-sufficiency. However, because important climate-regulation services biodiversity value provided shifting land uses present concerns multiple risks sustainability. In recent decades, similar occurred tropical been accompanied large-scale deforestation associated loss, emissions, soil erosion, disruption hydrological regulation ecosystem services, conflicts marginalization rural communities Indigenous groups. This transformation led increases production emergence commodity export-oriented economies. Soy Brazil palm oil Indonesia prime examples. Agricultural temperate such through recultivation abandoned result collapse Soviet Union. reflects complexity issues that can arise frontiers. have focus intense efforts systems sustainability sciences, well policy interventions years, resulting valuable learnings. transform, insights inform governance. commentary what we learned but does not propose blueprint solutions or panacea; rather, it aims open doors collaboration foster fruitful dialog among researchers, practitioners, stakeholders. Overall, experience accelerated compared trends. Projections suggest end 21st century, ?76% (55%–89%) be feasible temperature conditions cropping, i.e., >1,200 accumulated growing degree days per year above 5°C (GDD5).1King lands would thereby expand 6.85 today, 16.40 2100, thus ?9.55 140% gain. Whether satisfy agriculture, humidity conditions, remains uncertain, course, need imply conversion (indeed, Canada, only ?8.5%–9.0% subject GDD5 ?1,200 converted reflecting constraints regions).1King Yet, comparing numbers ?2.22 net Tropics over period 1961–2019, rates 0.07–0.10 shows magnitude challenge (see FAO statistics4FAOSTATFAOSTAT Statistical database.https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#dataDate: 2021Google “agricultural land,” permanent pasture, using simple definition “tropical” Central America Caribbean, South America, Africa, Southern Southeast Asia). Aggregated mask regional heterogeneities trends changes agriculture.5Tømmervik H. Forbes B.C. Focus recent, future productivity biomass changes.Environ. Res. Lett. 2020; 15: 080201Crossref (6) area vast, significant transformations likely global-scale impacts. Several works described impacts intensification yet their characterization quantification remain pressing gap research. Environmental include degradation habitat impacts; further greenhouse gas emissions clearing mainly carbon, mineralization organic especially peat soils; erosion nutrient leaching; water pollution.2Unc Scholar,6Hannah Roehrdanz P.R. K C K.B. Fraser E.D.G. Donatti C.I. Saenz Wright T.M. Hijmans R.J. Mulligan Berg van Soesbergen consequences frontiers.PLoS ONE. e0228305Crossref (45) Once triggered, cascade: melting permafrost, example, release nutrients turn modify composition.7Mauclet Agnan Y. Hirst C. Monhonval Pereira B. Vandeuren Villani Ledman Taylor Jasinski B.L. al.Changing sub-Arctic upon permafrost degradation: impact foliar mineral element cycling.Biogeosciences Discuss. : 1-34Google Socio-economic systems, livelihoods, employment, claims, migration, winners losers.2Unc ecosystems fragile, low self-recovery capacity when disturbed.3Altdorff embedded geopolitical tensions; e.g., contraction some low-latitude power markets will redistributed.8Summers Goodman Weaponizing Wheat: Russia’s Next Weapon Pandemic Eras.Georget. Int. Aff. 21: 62-70Crossref although here-above envisioned timescale, already underway many regions.3Altdorff Mitigating negative fostering desirable ones us understand how whom frontier happening, who gains loses changes. Research provide useful theoretical empirical starting points this. conceptualized broader framing “resource frontiers,” places imbalance between abundant resources comparative lack factors (capital, labor) exploit resources, inducing use.9Meyfroidt Roy Chowdhury R. de Bremond Ellis E.C. Erb K.-H. Filatova T. Garrett R.D. Grove J.M. Heinimann Kuemmerle al.Middle-range theories system change.Glob. Environ. Change. 53: 52-67Crossref (230) Often, suitable set uses, giving rise “land-use frontiers.” “Deforestation frontier” term frequently used characterize rampant deforestation, generally overwhelmingly related take place other, non-forest grasslands savannas. land-use pathways intrinsically linked, presenting tradeoffs synergies interventions. For policies restricting induce lands, positive consequences, possibly improving farmers marginalizing them if happens investments. Frontiers involve much more than change. process pushing back so-called “wilderness” create space development “taming world,” spaces facing rapidly expanding forces constituting actors.10Abeygunawardane Kronenburg García ZhanLi Müller Sitoe Meyfroidt Resource agglomeration economies: varied logics land-based investing Eastern Africa.agriRxiv. (In press)https://doi.org/10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00024Crossref Scholar,11Kronenburg Abeygunawardane Waves legacies: making investment Niassa, Mozambique.AfricaArXiv. press)https://doi.org/10.31730/osf.io/cvs3bCrossref “resource” newly discovered, “reinvented,” being given due technological, institutional, socio-economic, environmental, cultural changes.12le Polain Waroux Baumann Gasparri N.I. Gavier-Pizarro G. Godar Vázquez F. Volante J.N. Rents, Actors, Expansion Commodity Gran Chaco.Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr. 108: 204-225Google soybean emerged soy varieties cropping techniques allowed overcome climatic drier poorer soils America.12le Mineral emerge where gain sudden value, graphite lithium context renewable energy. makes typical “territorialization,” institutional actors, governments corporations, into “territories” they understand, monitor, regulate, naming, surveying, mapping, delineating land. Through processes, interface friction different worlds, subsistence capitalist economies, cultures, socio-political mode relations nature.13Tsing A.L. Friction: An ethnography connection. Princeton University Press, 2011Crossref Contemporary increasingly operated large-scale, capitalized “corporate” “commodity” frontiers.12le Echoing this, appear diverse combination public private providing enabling see growth, private, corporate populations, change.2Unc helps operating expansion, why, ways which might occur. With background mind, I here five resource, use, world (Table 1). concern generalized knowledge about (insights 1 5), potentially transferrable observing 2, 3, methodological advances inspire 2 4), reflections processes 1, 5). comprehensive review—only hint at cross-fertilization distinct regions.Table 1Five understanding governing frontiersInsightChallengePropositionExamples1frontiers complex social-ecological interactions, feedbacks, non-linear dynamicslook spillovers build adaptive governance, based causal understandingpolicies support rebound effect triggering expansion; restrict agriculture certain areas leakage areas9Meyfroidt Scholar2actors’ agency trigger surprising, frontiersunderstand actors’ decision-making goals identify emergent frontiers; easier steer rather highly activein Mozambique, actors previous waves investments struggling failing, leave legacies emergence;11Kronenburg investors African assets, adjusting heterogenous actors10Abeygunawardane Scholar3private, supply chains traditional territorial governanceexplore hybrid public-private, territorial-supply chain governancegovernance stop cocoa-driven West public, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international implementing supply-chain actions, standards certification supported NGOs, nationally developed internationally strategies Reducing Emissions Deforestation Degradation, watchdog transparency initiatives scientists, civil society.14Carodenuto Governance zero cocoa Africa: New forms public–private interaction.Environ. Policy Gov. 2019; 29: 55-66Crossref (27) Scholar4theories require understandinguse robust inference methods assess effects mechanisms interventionsresearch evaluation typically show protected located pressure, so naive overestimates effectiveness controlling changes15Schleicher Eklund D Barnes Geldmann Oldekop J.A. Jones J.P.G. matching conservation science.Conserv. Biol. 34: 538-549Crossref (51) Scholar5there’s losersacknowledge trade-offs embed governanceacross sample case studies, peoples play central role, community-based management schemes community designation, overall outcomes well-being do controlled external supersede customary institutions16Dawson Coolsaet Sterling Loveridge Gross-Camp Wongbusarakum Sangha K. Scherl Phan Zafra-Calvo al.The role effective equitable conservation.Ecol. Soc. 26Crossref (52) Open table tab First, reshape interactions technologies, systems.9Meyfroidt lead abrupt changes, structural “regime shifts,” rapid, or, conversely, shifts reforestation known “forest transitions.” mean one often causes indirect spillover elsewhere. Seemingly rational interventions, intensifying forestry order spare nature elsewhere, counteracting productive incentivizing capture markets, expansion. Similarly, achieve goal displacing pressure initial intentions, effects. contextual generalizations causing sequences specified possible influence them.9Meyfroidt Second, cannot fully understood investigating patterns. aiming capture, sometimes create, rent before others do, navigating moving too early, ripe, late, competition become rife.12le Understanding motivations, logistics, changes—in particular, business managers carry increasing weight contexts.10Abeygunawardane Before emerges, pioneers attempted develop commercial failed. hard notice visible outcomes, still material explain shape sudden, apparently “surprising,” early-warning signals.11Kronenburg on-the-ground, mixed Third, interconnections distant prominent played shaping approaches leverage sustainable practices. includes, eco-certification multi-stakeholders roundtables, voluntary codes conducts commitments produce, trade, process, retail commodities.17Lambin E.F. Gibbs H.K. Heilmayr Carlson K.M. Fleck L.C. le McDermott C.L. McLaughlin Newton reducing deforestation.Nat. Clim. Chang. 109-116Crossref (196) Increasingly, builds involving combinations spatial planning, key role,18Oliveira Strategic Spatial Planning Emerging Land-Use – Evidence press)https://doi.org/10.31730/osf.io/t3anzCrossref halt transnational companies committed implement zero-deforestation requirements suppliers (smallholders intermediary traders), articulating address deforestation.14Carodenuto Alignment interests coordination challenges. If commodities, hybrid, organize promote management. Fourth, methodologically, progress achieved assessing formalizing use impact-evaluation relying counterfactually statistical econometric estimate interventions.15Schleicher Such clear theory change, combined in-depth investigation operation. approaches, wisely, answers zoning conservation, extension programs promotion techniques, management, accounting direct leakage. Finally, decisions trade-offs, producing losers sets actors. body evidence highlights importance developing partnership communities, showing fairer sustainability.16Dawson contexts, claims complex, fragmented tenure necessarily acknowledged targeting expansion.2Unc raise critical challenges economic tensions. few contexts. Key avenues remain, better impacts, channel toward externalities. Conversion irreversible even restoration feasible, full recovery ecosystems’ values. lesson agribusiness momentum reaches speed, becomes extremely difficult steer. Proactive trajectories systems.